The Impact of Al-Shabaab on East Africa

Introduction

Eastern Africa is part of the sub-Saharan Africa which comprises two conventionally recognized areas, the Horn of Africa and East Africa (Low & Marcus, 2019). The Horn of Africa consists of nations like Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, while East Africa consists of nations like Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. In diplomatic perspective, the East African Community, which is the intergovernmental organisation found in the East African region, extends to Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan. East Africa has a population of over 172 million people where 22% of the people live in urban regions (East African Community, 2019). The growth of the East African Community has its foundation during the pre-colonial era, in 1919, when Tanganyika, Uganda and Kenya were the first countries to develop cooperation (Reith & Boltz, 2011). The three countries were all under the British colonial rule and after independence, each individual country had different political trajectories which in some way had similarities with each other. Each of the nations has experimented with one-party and centralised political systems and the residents in the region share common borders. Uganda’s political trajectory can be described as troubled due to incidences of military coups and dictatorship. Tanzania’s and Kenya’s political trajectory is relatively stable (Burke, 2019). Although, they all still face a variety of internal political problems such as corruption, despotic leadership, electoral malpractice as well as other political issues. The literature of East Africa is dominated with issues of political developments, constitutionalism, conflict and democracy (Burke, 2019). The East African region is affected by terrorist activities carried out by a deadly sub-Saharan Africa jihadi group known as the Al-Shabaab. The Somali based group gained notoriety after its brutal attacks against the neighbouring nation of Kenya. The group’s activities are grounded in religious fundamentalism, which has implications for the diverse populations of the countries in the east African region. Al-Shabaab has waged its insurgency of imposing the Islamic law of rigorous version on Somalia and despite being eradicated from major cities, it controls the anarchic failed nation’s central and southern rural areas (Burke, 2019). The Al-Shabaab’s efforts to impose strict Sharia laws in the nation consists of brutal acts and attacks using suicide bombers against the “enemies of Islam” (Sommerlad, 2019). The Al-Shabaab began by winning popular support for its pledge to provide security Somalia which has had over 20 years of political instability. The Al-Shabaab pledged allegiance to the al-Qaeda and is alleged to have ties with the Islamic Maghreb in Algeria and Boko Haram in Nigeria (Sommerlad, 2019). The militant group may not have links with ISIS due to its rejection which caused a rift among its leaders that resulted in the breaking and formation of the Jabha East African splinter faction that recognizes the ISIS leader as the rightful Muslim Khalifa (Sommerlad, 2019). Kenya has been the primary victim of al-Shabaab attacks in East Africa, especially on renowned incidental attacks on Nairobi’s Westgate Shopping Center that left 62 civilians dead in 2013. Also, it made attacks on quarry workers, teachers traveling on a coach and the Garissa University in Kenya which resulted in a death toll of 148 people. A Kenyan military base adjacent to El Adde, Somalia was also attacked in 2016, leaving 180 soldiers dead. American embassies based in the east African region have also been targeted by the Al Shabaab.

The topic for the dissertation is related to the impact of Al Shabaab terrorist group on the political stability of East African countries. The Al-Sbabaab group is an Islamist militia group with roots in the Al-Qaeda (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). The group is responsible for a number of terror attacks in Eastern Africa, including the Westgate attack in Kenya (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). The origins of the Al Shabaab group in Eastern Africa is said to be in Somalia and goes back to 2003 in Hargeisa although there is some confusion on when the group actually came into being with some saying that the origins of this group go back to 1996 (Hansen, 2013). Different governments in Eastern Africa have responded to the radicalisation by Al Shabaab. For instance, the Kenyan government has responded to the radicalisation propaganda by Al Shabaab by resorting to mass media for discrediting the Al Shabaab radicalisation efforts (Odhiambo, et al., 2013). There are other steps that Kenyan government has taken that have included security policy steps like attacking southern Somalia in order to capture areas controlled by them. States like Uganda that have also been attacked by the Al Shabaab group have not taken similar steps. However, most of these states have not made any substantive legislation on the defining of terrorism. Rather, there are security-oriented steps that have been taken by the states. Therefore, there are steps taken by the states in east African region against the activities of the Al Shabaab group.

The research questions are as follows:

What is the historical origin of the Al Shabaab group in the Eastern African countries?

How do the countries respond through law and policy to the radicalisation and terrorist activities of the Al Shabaab group? How are these similar or different?

How does the Al Shabaab group affect the political stability in Eastern African countries?

The major themes that are involved in this topic are related to the terror activities by Al Shabaab in the East African nations. The dissertation will explore how the Al Shabaab group has come to become relevant in the Eastern African region through its violent and terrorist activities, and how the governments of the East African region have responded to these terror activities through counter-terrorism law and policy, and how these activities impact the political stability of the region. There are other aspects that are covered in this dissertation including the concept of radicalisation. Al-Shabaad is responsible for a number of terror attacks in the region.

Methodology

This part of the dissertation discusses the methodology adopted and the justification of the same. Based on the aims and objectives of the research, a qualitative research methodology was thought to be necessary. This is because it is necessary to gain insight into the beliefs, experiences and meanings of issues underlying the East African politics and the Al-Shabaab. The qualitative method to be used was document analysis – a procedure which involves the systematic review and evaluation of documents of both electronic and printed material (Bowen, 2009). Document analysis was crucial in the examining and interpreting the literature on political stability or the lack of it in East African countries to acquire empirical knowledge. Prior literature was reviewed and on the basis of this, findings have been described after interpretion of data regarding the political implications of the Al-Shabaab (Bowen, 2009). Systematic literature review is the method chosen for the collection of data for this dissertation. A systematic literature review is beneficial because it helps the researcher to locate a large number of sources in high-quality literature (Bettany-Saltikov, 2012). A systematic literature review is defined as a method in which the researcher is able to provide the summary of all available, relevant, and accessible literature (Bettany-Saltikov, 2012). The process of systematic review involves the researcher in identification, selection, appraisal and synthesis of data from high quality literature and empirical studies (Bettany-Saltikov, 2012). A systematic review is useful in research studies that involve meta-synthesis of data and where the research questions can be answered through this process; and because the process is systematic, methodological and involves use of high quality literature and empirical studies, the findings of the research are considered to be credible (Bettany-Saltikov, 2012). In this research, the researcher chose a systematic literature review because the topic of study and the research questions formulated would be answered by the method. The researcher will be able to collate “all empirical evidence that fits pre-specified eligibility criteria in order to answer a specific research question” (Green, et al., 2011, p. 6). This would help the researcher to gather and collate all relevant data without bias. Indeed, an advantage of adopting a systematic review is that there is a decrease in bias as the method is explicit (Green, et al., 2011). Another advantage in a qualitative research like this one is that adoption of a systematic review reduces the opportunity for subjectivity as the explicit approach to selection of literature means that the researcher will consider all literature and empirical evidence that aligns to the inclusion criteria. Thus, using a systematic literature review can aid the researcher in designing a method that is free from bias, follows a specific protocol, and sees the researcher collect information from all relevant sources (Green, et al., 2011). The data was collected from peer reviewed journal articles, books, reports, and other secondary sources that will be identified from the electronic data bases on the internet (Green, et al., 2011). A search string was used for the purpose of systematic literature review. The following search string was used: Al Shabaab And Political stability And East African countries. The inclusion criteria for this search was as follows: Al Shabaab; East African countries; and literature from post-2008 period. The keywords used to acquire sources for this research included terms like ‘Al-Shabaab,’ ‘political stability,’ ‘East Africa,’ ‘violence,’ ‘Somalia,’ ‘terrorism,’ ‘radicalization,’ ‘insurgency,’ ‘resurgence,’ ‘counterterrorism,’ and ‘extremism.’ This was in addition to the search string and to widen the scope of the search. Using this methodology, identification and selection of peer-reviewed journal articles, books, news reports and information from government websites was done.

A thematic analysis method was used to analyse the data collected from the literature review. The themes include violence by the Al-Shabaab on East African nations, the resurgence of the Al-Shabaab, counterterrorism measures against the Al-Shabaab, radicalization activities by the Muslim Al-Shabaab, and the history and growth of Al-Shabaab. The thematic analysis method was used for its ability to help the researcher organise and analyse the data on the basis of the themes. Thematic method was chosen because of the nature of data in qualitative research being copious where such large amount of data has to be analysed and meta-synthesised (Jones, 2004). The thematic analysis method is useful in such a situation as it allows the researcher to follow a process where the researcher can go through the data, identify key themes that are repeated, and only focus on these themes for the purpose of analysis and reporting the data (Bearman & Dawson, 2013). A thematic method allows the researcher to be well-organised in reading, analysing and collating the copious amount of data involved in the thematic research. In the current study, the topic of research requires the researcher to collect and analyse data that is multi-layered. A thematic analysis method has allowed the researcher to address the important themes involved in the data keeping in mind the research questions as well. As expected in the initial stage of this research, certain challenges were encountered in relation to determining the reliability of news reports as well as other online-based sources of information. Another challenge was the lack of information and research on countries other than Kenya. However, the literature review contains a review of all relevant and discoverable literature on the subject, and points the gaps in the research which will be useful for conducting future research on this topic.

Literature review

Terrorism is a difficult term to define and as of now there is no universal consensus on definition of terrorism, with Schmid and Jongman compiling more than hundred definitions of terrorism (Schmid & Jongman). The definition of terrorism has also been controversial because definitions of terrorism are written by agencies with direct links with governments, and those who oppose these definitions claim that these are biased as they systematically exclude state terrorism from the definitions. This leads to the understanding that terrorism is a social construct, that is defined from the subjective point of view of a categoriser (Greene, 2017). The meaning of terrorism has been through different oscillations, reflecting the ideas that are context specific, in terms of location and period. Initially, terrorism was originally defined as the violence sponsored by a state with a goal of inducing terror and fear to gain control and domination in an anarchical society; the definition has changed to take the exact opposite meaning, which shall be relied upon by this research, which is political violence which is directed against a nation (Greene, 2017). Some common themes in terrorism however can be noted which include use of violence, motivation to instill fear in the victims and audience and the increase in intensity of the terror attacks (McCann, 2006; Schmid & Jongman; Neumann, 2009). Based on the argument that even if it is difficult to define terrorism, it is still important to define terrorism because legal responses to the phenomenon depend on this definition (Wilkinson, 2006), this part of the dissertation will seek to define terrorism based on the academic and statutory definitions of terrorism. It is important to define terrorism because the way a state defines terrorism also shapes its understanding of the problem, and its responses (Wilkinson, 2006). There is also an implication of not defining terrorism clearly in the civil rights and political opposition contexts, as broad definitions of terrorism can lead to states being overly oppressive under the pretext of counter-terrorism (Wilkinson, 2006). These factors make it necessary to define terrorism statutorily. Although there is lack of consensus on the definition of terrorism, there are some common themes in the definitions as mentioned above. Thus, terrorism is usually defined as measures that involve use of violence or force, which have political motivation and, which are aimed to instill fear of terror in the audience (McCann, 2006; Schmid & Jongman). The problem with defining terrorism other than these commonly found factors is that there is a difficulty in achieving value neutrality, with some definitions refusing to consider state sponsored violence as terrorism and others refusing to consider anti-government movements that are popular but are violent as terrorism (Schmid & Jongman). Some countries statutorily define terrorism, for instance, in the UK, Terrorism Act 2000, Part 1, Section 1 defines terrorism in a comprehensive sense. Terrorism is defined as the use or threat of action designed to influence the government or an international government organisation, or to intimidate the public or a section of the public; and for advancing a political, religious, racial or ideological cause. Section 1 provides that such terrorist action can involve serious violence against a person, property, or serious risk to the health or safety of the public or a section of the public. This is a very comprehensive definition of terrorism. In the United States, there are multiple definitions of terrorism. One definition is given in the United States Code, Title 22, Section 2656 f (d), which defines terrorism as “premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against non-combatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents” (Walker, 2011, p. 43). Another definition is in the Code of Federal Regulations (28 C.F.R. Section 085), which defines terrorism as “unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, civilian population, or any segment thereof in furtherance of political or social objectives.” These definitions emphasise on the use of violence against civilians and non-combatants for the purpose of achieving some political or social objectives.

In East African countries, there is a lack of statutory responses to the defining of terrorism, with very few countries actually using their laws to define terrorism (Silisisi, 2018). At the same time, terrorism is a growing cause of concern in Africa, as put by two commentators in the following words:

“Whereas terrorism in not entirely new on the continent, the magnitude with which it is increasing is dismal. Today Africa is a fertile environment for the growth of terrorism because of a plethora of characteristics, among others: religious fundamentalism, tribal and ethnic tensions, growing regional and political instability, and ideologies of extremists groups that are lobbying to establish new states in replacement of old ones” (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2017, p. 1).

Therefore, the growing incidence of terrorism in Africa, needs a response. There is growing evidence of religious fundamentalism, ethnic tensions between different groups, and instabilities in the region, which make for a fertile ground for the terror organisations like the Al Shabaab. This next section of the literature review discusses the different methods adopted by the governments in Eastern Africa to respond to the threats posed by Al Shabaab. This part also discusses the political implications of the resurgence of the Al Shabaab group to the East African countries and the ways in which the responses of the states are similar or different from each other. The Al-Shabaab is an organization affiliated with the al-Qaeda and has rapidly risen into prominence throughout the long decades of anarchy in Somalia (Wise, 2011). The Al-Shabaab grew out of a merger among four groups of Somali natives and gained support from foreign Islamists; the four groups of origin include the Salafi Islamist group of al-I’tisaam, Takfiir wa Hijra, some Islamists that demanded more military efficiency of the Islamic courts and a number of Somali militants that had international Jihad experience, either from Afghanistan or anywhere else in the Arabian world (Wise, 2011). The organisation had grown powerful by 2006. The Ethiopian invasion made the organisation more prominent as an Islamist guerrilla militia and by 2008, the al-Shabaab transformed from a local organisation based out of Somalia and aimed at driving away Ethiopian military using traditional military tactics to being a hybridised movement which increasingly embraces transnational terrorism and tries to image itself as part of the global war against Westernisation (Wise, 2011). Al Shabaab is known by various names in the East African countries, where it has been the most prevalent; it in known as “Harakat ash-shabaab al-Mwaahidin, Xarakada Mujaahidiinta al-shabaab, mujalideen Youth movement or movement of striving youth, the youth or the youngsters or the guys is a jihadist fundamentalist group based in East Africa that operates mainly in Somalia but have cells in the Horn of Africa” (Silisisi, 2018, p. 6). The Al Shabaab group has allegiance to Al-Qaeda, which is an international terrorism group, which means that the activities of the group are transnational in nature (Silisisi, 2018). In the context of the East African nations, where countries like Somalia have had unstable political conditions, within which Al-Shaabab has managed to create a strong base for their operations (Silisisi, 2018). There is also a religious angle to the activities of this group where it targets its actions to make the predominantly Islamic population of countries like Somalia respond to its religious propaganda of ‘Jihad’ for recruiting new members and launching attacks (Silisisi, 2018). The events in Ethiopia in 2006, when it was invaded have also provided some impetus to the activities of the group, with the group reorganising itself in early 2008 where it went from a formerly perceived guerilla military group into a terror organisation (Silisisi, 2018). Al Shabaab typically targets weaker and unstable political conditions in East African countries. For instance, the civil unrest in Somalia in the 1990s, which left it unstable in political context, allowed the Al Shabaab group to rise and gain control of key parts in Somalia, where there was least political stability (Silisisi, 2018).

The East African countries are generally susceptible to terrorism activities in terms of recruitment and membership of the groups. There have also been an increase in terror attacks in the region. Al-Qaeda carried out a number of prominent terror attacks in 1998, where the targets were mainly American citizens like in the bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam (Silisisi, 2018). In Kenya, there were prominent attacks in the West Gate and in Garissa University, which were targeted at the Kenyan population (Silisisi, 2018). Nigeria has been targeted by the Boko Haram group, which like the Al Shabaab has taken advantage of the mistrust between the citizens and the national government to gain popularity and popular support in its armed rebellion against the government. The reasons why the Al Shabaab and similar groups have managed to find a foothold in the East African region can be traced to socio-economic factors that are prevalent in the region. These factors include the high poverty index in the region which has some of the largest numbers of poor in the world, a high level of illiteracy, a high level of political instability with many countries emerging out of or still in the throes of civil unrest, and poor governance systems (Bashir, 2007). There are weak institutions, both political and legal in the region which also makes it easier for the terror groups to take advantage of the gaps in the social structures of these countries (Bashir, 2007). With regard to the ability of the Al Shabaab group to recruit in this region, the reason could be traced to the high level of youth unemployment even with a more educated population of young graduates in the countries in East Africa; the young graduates are more educated, have knowledge of Information and Communication Technology, and are keen to make a living, but are denied opportunities in unstable political and economic environments of their countries (Bashir, 2007). Radicalisation of youth in these countries is traced back to high rates of unemployment and socio-economic reasons. The youth in East African countries is proving to be susceptible to radicalisation activities of the groups like Al Shabaab also because there is a scarcity of jobs and a high level of frustration amongst the youth (Silisisi, 2018). At the same time, there is a proliferation of ideological based or religion based orientation amongst High School or university students. There are international and regional contexts of terrorism in this region. East Africa’s close proximity to Somalia and the Arabian Peninsula provides an international angle to the terrorism in East Africa. Both Somalia and the Arabian Peninsula have been known to have bases of terror groups, which has enabled the terror groups in the East African region to provide a base for groups like Al-Shabaab from where these groups can carry out their activities even beyond the region (Silisisi, 2018). Due to the porous borders in this region, the terrorists are able to move across borders and perpetrate attacks in different countries of the region. Many attacks in Kenya for example, have been perpetrated by terrorists who are based in Somalia and who come in from Somalia into Kenya, perpetrate attacks and then go back to Kenya (Silisisi, 2018). There are also forest areas in the region where the members of Al Shabaab have been known to hide out after their attacks; one such attack by the Al Shabaab group was the Mpeketoni attack, which happened close to the Pandaguo forest which is known for harbouring Al-Shabaab fighters (Mogire & Agade, 2011).

Another factor that is responsible for the increase in terror activities in the East African region is the growth of religious based terrorism (Kimungunyi, 2015). The East African has diversity of faith and has historically been known to have cooperation amongst different groups of people; however, an increase in terror activities of groups like Al Shabaab has led to a perception of increase in Islamic terrorism and about the role of states like Saudi Arabia in the Gulf region (Kimungunyi, 2015). There has therefore been an increase in the perceptions of there being a cross the border influence on the growth of terror activities. This has led to some inter faith conflict in the region with there being a general feeling that members of a particular religion are encouraging terror activities with support from certain Islamic countries (Kimungunyi, 2015). These have ramifications for the development of regional relations and foreign policy of the states in the East African region. In Kenya, where majority of the terror attacks have been perpetrated in the years beginning in 2012, there is an increased perception and criticism of Islamic based terror groups like Al Shabaab, with two of the deadliest attacks in Kenya being perpetrated by this group. The West Gate terror attack left more than 60 individuals dead, and the Garissa University attack left 147 students dead. These attacks were taken responsibility of by the Al Shabaab group, and the people targeted were mostly non-Muslims; this has led to religious tensions between people of different faiths in Kenya (Kimungunyi, 2015). The development of local groups affiliated to the Al Shabaab group have further complicated matters in Kenya. For instance, the Muslim Youth Center (MYC), which is an urban terror group based in Nairobi and known to be affiliated to the Al-Shabaab group, was also implicated in the planning of the West gate attack (Kimungunyi, 2015). The MYC is also thought to be involved in the recruiting of youths from both the Muslim and the non Muslim communities and from different ethnicities (Silisisi, 2018). The discussion above shows how far the activities of the Al Shabaab have percolated into the East African nations and the impacts of the same on the countries. There have been some significant terrorism attacks in countries like Kenya, which have led to loss of life and property in these countries. There are also some political implications of these terrorist activities, some of which are specifically related to foreign policy. For instance, one of the impacts of the terror attacks in East African countries is in the increase of American led programmes to counter terror groups affiliated to the Al Qaeda, which is a response to the bombing of the American embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998 (Ploch, 2010). Some of the responses are specifically aimed at Al Shabaab, especially in the deployment of troops for the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM); programmes are also aimed to support states that have been threatened by the Al Shabaab, like Uganda and Burundi (Ploch, 2010). These programmes are significant because they have been deployed as part of regional and bilateral efforts between the United States and the African Union (Ploch, 2010). Some of the areas where the programmes are used relate to the building of regional intelligence, port, and border security, responding to terrorist financing and spread of extremist ideologies (Ploch, 2010). Thus, the United States, too, has made efforts to counter Al-Shabaab militants. Following an attack by the Al-Shabaab against the Somali National Army Forces, the U.S Africa Command (AFRICOM) organized airstrikes which left more than 50 militants assassinated. To further counter the growing risk posed by the Al-Shabaab, the US is spending more resources and energy by partnering with the AMISOM forces and it is suggested to collaborate with the security forces in Somalia (Lahiff, 2016). While this particular way in which the political impacts are felt is not relevant to this research, it is useful to know how the responses to the threat from Al Shabaab are taking on different forms in the African Union, with member states looking out of the Union to forge partnerships and programmes for counter-terrorism.

There are more immediate political repercussions of the counter-terrorism policies of the East African nations in the African context itself. For instance, the war against Al Shabaab led Kenya to invade southern Somalia while the latter region was caught in a severe local famine and a regional drought; Kenyan armed forces aimed to capture Kismayo for crushing the Al Shabaab (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). This has led to complicated repercussions with the Al Shabaab also responding through the carrying out of terror attacks in Kenyan towns (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). While Kenya did manage to take control of Kismayo, there are impacts on internal politics, with Islamic groups being able to exploit the political situation for their own gains (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). Therefore, the most important political impact of Al Shabaab’s activities is the internal one, with there being multiple implications of the responses to the terrorism sponsored by Al Shabaab (Lind, Mutahi, & Oosterom, 2015). This is explained as follows in the Kenyan context:

“Since 2014, the Kenya Government has stepped up its security responses to the perceived threat of Al-Shabaab. It has instigated police swoops in majority-Somali neighbourhoods, tightened administrative controls of refugee populations, passed new security laws, and given wide leeway to the Anti-Terrorism Policing Unit, which some human rights observers accuse of being involved in the extrajudicial killings of terror suspects. These responses derive from a discourse and understanding that ‘sees’ outsiders, namely Somalis, as a threat, both internally and with regard to conflict spillovers from Somalia. Rather than adapting its security approach to an enemy with an advanced understanding of Kenya’s political psychology and sociology, the state perpetuates an ‘others’ approach that treats entire populations as somehow separate and threatening. However, far from strengthening security, the centre’s security responses dovetail with an unseemly politicisation of worsening violence, deepening entrenched ethnic and regional divides that structure and frame Kenya’s system of violence” (Lind, Mutahi, & Oosterom, 2015).

As East African countries were increasingly targeted by the Al-Shabaab, they also responded to the attacks. On December, 2006, Ethiopia developed an armed intervention which sent thousands of soldiers into Somalia. The Ethiopian invasion disoriented the Al-Shabaab leadership and caused its members to retreat to the south (Wise, 2011). The armed intervention was so close to completely eradicating the Al-Shabaab and they considered it as being the reason for their targeted assassinations of military heads, aid workers and heads of civil societies. Hundreds of its supporters had died on account of the Ethiopian invasion and the ineffective military tactics it adopted (Marchal, 2011). Failure of the Ethiopian forces to eliminate the Al-Shabaab was followed by Burundian and Ugandan peacekeeping missions forerun by the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) (Wise, 2011). AMISOM concentrated its operations in Mogadishu by guarding the seaports, airports, the presidential residence as well as some essential neighbourhoods in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) (Marchal, 2011). The AMISOM consists of troops contributed from six nations, namely, Djibouti, Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, and East African nations like Kenya, Burundi and Uganda (Williams, 2018). The police force in Somalia is made up of personnel from nations like Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia and Sierra Leone (Rahman & Shaban, 2019). The Al-Shabaab considers the TFG and AMISOM as their key enemies (Marchal, 2011). The resurgence of Al-Shabaab has various political implications which affect East African Countries. Al-Shabaab has fewer supporters than before the Ethiopian invasion. Therefore, it has been making recruitments. These recruitments have political implications where young Muslim Kenyans become radicalised by the Al-Shabaab recruiters using sermons of extremism. The youth are often psychologically manipulated into enrolling themselves in the terror group (Counter Extremism Project, 2018). This also increased spying activities in Kenya, on behalf of the Al-Shabaab and makes it difficult for Kenyan forces to control terror attacks. Of all the East African countries, Kenya is more at risk due to sharing a porous border with Somalia. Also, it has a minority Somali population which is believed to harbour many foreign ethnic Somali fighters. The nation is further at risk due to the high level of corruption activities involving Kenyan citizens benefiting from Somalia’s political violence economy. Presenting a good safe haven for the Al-Shabaab, Kenya experiences increased radicalization of its Swahili coast whereby Salafism, which is a traditional Islamic practice in Somalia, is being taught over Sufism (Wise, 2011). Radical newsletters are shared on Fridays from one of the largest and important mosques in Nairobi and Salafi groups are gaining more funding than the conventional Sufi groups. Radicalization has intensified in northeastern Kenyan just like other parts in the East African region. Radicalization is a political threat because, should the Al-Shabaab dissolve at any point in the future, the radical fighters may redirect their attention to other places in East Africa (Wise, 2011). Violence from the Al-Shabaab extremists has increased with the resurgence. Violence has intensified in the form of suicide bombings, the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), car bombings, planting bombs, hijacking and kidnapping, militant attacks and killings by Al-Shabaab gunmen. For instance, in 2013, Al-Shabaab militants facilitated a four-day deadly raid which left 67 people dead and over 200 people injured (Counter Extremism Project, 2018). In 2014, militants hijacked a bus whose destination was Nairobi Kenya and Muslims were separated from non-Muslims by asking the passengers to recite the Shahada, which is the Islamic faith declaration. The hijacking resulted in 28 the death of 28 people. In 2015, Kenya’s Garissa University was raided by Al-Shabaab gunmen resulting in 148 people killed (Counter Extremism Project, 2018). The prime targets for their raid were Christian students. In 2016, the African Union military base in Somalia was attacked and killed dozens of Kenya troops. This was followed by the Kenyan troops abandoning the camp roughly a week later (Counter Extremism Project, 2018).

There is a need to establish alternative responses to the Al Shabaab as military responses do not always work. This is due to the participation of some members of the societies in the activities of the Al Shabaab. Therefore, in order to establish alternative responses against the militant group, it is necessary for nations to have an understanding of the complex local landscape revolving around clan dynamics in Somalia. First, the states need to consider that Al-Shabaab has weakened. Its influence is weaker than it was in the years prior. Second, there already exist coalitions collaborating against the extremists. These two factors, along with the existence of a slightly committed and more united Somali government pave the way for alternative courses of action. One alternative is by seeking collaboration with the U.S. intelligence and military forces. Support from the US will provide the East African nations with ample and timely assistance, training and advice. East African nations can work together with the United Nations (UN) in its counterterrorism approach which offers a more inclusive and holistic approach towards overcoming the Al-Shabaab. The UN has a four-pillar plan which, by being holistic, is in agreement with the beliefs of East African terrorism experts, that an effective strategy for counterterrorism needs factor in the preventive measures which address the perceived and real grievances and the underlying economic, political and social conditions. The UN’s Counterterrorism Implementation Task Force is important in reinforcing East Africa’s counterterrorism capacity because not only does is it holistic, but also offers an approach that is more balanced in addressing appropriate counterterrorism measures (Kimunguyi, 2013). Thus, there are a number of different internal impacts of the activities of Al Shabaab. From an increasing security discourse, to the impacts on management of refugee populations, to even the invasion of Somalian territories. These impacts have implications for the continuing inter-ethnic equations between different groups.

Findings and discussion

This part of the dissertation discusses the findings of the dissertation based on the thematic analysis of the data collected through a systematic literature review. The findings are reported in a thematic manner. The principal themes that are revealed in the literature review are related to the socio-economic factors that have enabled the increase in the recruitment of youth in East African region by the Al Shabaab, the activities of Al Shabaab beyond and within Somalia and the impacts of these activities on the political decisions of the countries in the East African region most impacted by the terror acts of the group. Kenya is one of the countries where some of the major terror attacks have been carried out by the Al Shabaab. Other important themes uncovered by the literature review concerns the tensions between religious groups due to Al Shabaab’s activities and the responses of the countries to these tensions. First, with respect to the conditions that have helped perpetuate Al Shabaab’s recruitment activities in the East African region, this research found that some of the most important factors that have allowed Al Shabaab to increase its recruitment activity are socio-economic factors. The high rates of poverty and other socio economic factors are pointed out in literature as being relevant to the growing radicalisation of youth. Bashir (2007) wrote about the high poverty index in the region, a high level of illiteracy, a high level of political instability, and civil unrest and poor governance systems as some of the reasons that have allowed Al Shabaab to recruit youth in the region. There are gaps in the social structures due to presence of weak political and legal institutions, and Al Shabaab has taken advantage of these gaps to exploit the situation and recruit more individuals or increase social support for its activities. Indeed, in the recent time, as compared to conditions mentioned by Bashir (2007), there has been a growing level of literacy and education among the youth of East African countries as pointed out by Silisisi (2018). Therefore, another finding of this research is that in the last decade or so, there have been higher levels of education in the region with a higher population of educated youth, which means that even if there is more literacy and education, there is still an increase in radicalisation. The factor responsible for such radicalisation according to data provided by Silisisi (2018) is the high level of unemployment. East African countries do depict high level of youth unemployment even with a more educated population of young graduates (Silisisi, 2018). Instead of being an impediment to recruitment of youth for radicalisation, the high level of education and knowledge of Information and Communication Technology when combined with less opportunities for employment in unstable political and economic environments of their countries have become potent combination for the activities of Al Shabaab as radicalisation of youth who are not motivated and are frustrated becomes easier for the terrir group. The significance of high level of frustration amongst the youth as factor responsible for their radicalisation is reported by Silisisi (2018). Another social factor that is found to be relevant to increase of Al Shabaab’s activities in East Africa is religious fundamentalism. This is one of the findings of this research as the East African region has witnessed a significant growth of religious based terrorism (Kimungunyi, 2015). The rise in religious fundamentalism has happened despite the diversity of the region, which has people belonging to different faiths. Regarding the activities of Al Shabaab beyond and within Somalia, although the group is based primarily in Somalia, it has conducted some major terror attacks in countries in the East African region. In fact, Kenya has been one of the most impacted by Al Shabaab’s terror activities. Al Shabaab has targeted American citizens in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam as well Africans in countries like Uganda, Kenya and Nigeria. The activities of Al Shabaab include radicalisation and recruitment of youth, carrying out of terror attacks and even aiding piracy in the region off Somalia. Much of the Al Shabaab activities are also seen as spill-overs from the Somalian region, which has been deeply impacted by civil war, infighting and political instability.

Regarding the impacts of Al Shabaab’s activities on the political conditions and decisions of the countries in the East African region most impacted by the terror acts of the group, one of the impact is a growing mistrust between people of different faiths. This is due to the religious fundamentalist origins and activities of the Al Shabaab group. East Africa has diversity of faith and historically has seen coexistence between different groups of people, which is now threatened by the activities of Al Shabaab, which has led to a perception of increase in Islamic terrorism and about the role of states like Saudi Arabia in the Gulf region (Kimungunyi, 2015). Therefore, one of the impacts of the group is that there is an increase in the perceptions of there being a cross the border influence on the growth of terror activities, which is responsible for inter faith conflict in the region. This research has found that literature evidence indicates there being a general feeling that members of a particular religion are encouraging terror activities with support from certain Islamic countries (Kimungunyi, 2015). Another impact of the Al Shabaab’s activities is a political one. As there is growing evidence of the Somalia based group’s terror acts in countries like Kenya, these have been ramifications felt due to this in the development of regional relations and foreign policy of the states in the East African region. In Kenya, an increased perception and criticism of Islamic based terrorism is due to the attacks like West Gate terror where the people targeted were mostly non-Muslims. This led to religious tensions between people of different faiths in Kenya and also impacted Kenya’s relationship with Somalia. Internal and external politics are both impacted by Al Shabaab’s activities. Internal political repercussions relate to the growing public perception against Islamic terror and impacts on inter-faith relations. In Kenya for example, internal politics are impacted by the relations between different groups of faith and this is exploited by both the political parties as well as the Islamic fundamentalists. External impacts include foreign policy and security related decisions. Kenya’s invasion of southern Somalia is an example revealed by the literature to link directly to Al Shabaab as Kenya’s decision to invade southern Somalia was aimed at the capture of Al Shabaab’s stronghold, Kismayo for crushing the Al Shabaab (Anderson & McKnight, 2015 ). An important foreign policy impact of Al Shabaab is the cooperation between some countries in the East African region with the United States of America for counter terrorism programmes. As one of the major targets of Al Shabaab’s activities in East Africa, the United States has initiated programmes to counter terror groups affiliated to the Al Qaeda, and aimed at Al Shabaab. This includes deployment of troops for the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and programmes aimed to support states like Uganda and Burundi (Ploch, 2010). Therefore, an impact of the Al Shabaab’s activities is that these have led to the development of regional and bilateral efforts between the United States and the African Union. Some of the areas where the programmes are used relate to the building of regional intelligence, port, and border security, responding to terrorist financing and spread of extremist ideologies (Ploch, 2010).

Conclusion

This part of the dissertation provides the conclusions to the research questions posed in this research. The conclusions are based on the findings and discussion chapters of the dissertation. The historical origin of the Al Shabaab group can be traced to Somalia. It has had links with Al Qaeda and is generally considered to be an affiliate of Al Qaeda. Although, based out of Somalia, Al Shabaab has managed to create a stronghold in countries like Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria. This is because of its ability to recruit youth from these countries. The success of Al Shabaab in recruiting this youth is because of the gaps in the social and political structures in these countries which allows Al Shabaab to exploit existing conditions and recruit youth and radicalise them. The high level of poverty, low levels of employment despite higher levels of education and literacy, high levels of youth frustration, and ethnic tensions are some of the reasons why Al Shabaab has managed to maintain a high level of recruitment of youth for its activities. Although terrorism has become a major issue in East Africa, there are fewer legal responses and more security oriented responses. For example, this research found that most East African countries have yet to define terrorism in statutes. This is in contrast with countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, which have also been targeted by terrorism but which now define the offence of terrorism in their laws. What the gap has meant in the East African context is that the states are responding to terrorism increasingly from a security basis. This is seen in Kenya’s response to Al Shabaab’s activities by invading southern Somalia. Kenya as of yet does not have a comprehensive legal definition of terrorism but it does have a policy response to terrorism. This policy response is seen in the way Kenya approaches its regulation of refugees or its relations with Somalia. The problem with this approach is that while responses are being made to Al Shabaab’s activities, these responses remain largely political in nature. In the Al Shabaab group decidedly affects the political stability in Eastern African countries. There are both internal and external impacts of its activities on how the countries respond to the group. Internally, there is more inter-ethnic conflict and mistrust which has proven political repercussions. Both the political parties in East Africa as well as the Al Shabaab group itself have taken advantage of inter-ethnic conflict to further their agenda. The inter-ethnic conflict also leads to the perception that a specific religious community is involved in terrorism or that a specific religious community is being targeted by the state in the name of terrorism and security. The security oriented approach to terrorism by most East African countries has only added to these perceptions.

Further research would be required to consider how the activities of Al Shabaab impact the political decisions of these countries. One limitation of this research was that being a desk based research, the researcher could only rely on existing literature to come to the findings to the research questions. As literature on all East African states was not available or comprehensive enough, the researcher had to report the conclusions based primarily on the literature available. In future, a mixed methods research to cover both primary and secondary data on political impacts can be undertaken with specific case study countries in East Africa to gain more insight on how different countries in the region are impacted by and respond to Al Shabaab’s activities.

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